• American Public University

• INTL INTL498

1) A recent wave of terrorism in Egypt is threatening the stability of the central government. What does this mean? a. What is the intent and origin of this group? What form of terrorism is being used? (PIR1)  What is the nationality of these leaders involved in this new wave? ACH: knowing the nationality of this group could identify what threat they pose as well as how they will push their ideology. It could eliminate hypotheses about the new regime once it is identified. Knowing the origin can lead to further questions about the intent of the terrorist.  What weaknesses could the key leaders in this new terrorist group have and how could they be exploited? Predictive: with this knowledge the analyst can find ways to exploit the terrorist cell as well as come up with effective honey-pot techniques.  What are the pattern of life of the key leaders of the new terrorism regime? Predictive: identifying trends gathered through research and intelligence can help with predicting possible movements and behaviors. Figuring out the pattern of life can show what kind of threat they might have on the government. b. Capabilities and Abilities? (PIR 2)  Are influencers involved in the group that are involved in the community? Are any members locals? High-impact/Low Probability: identifying current or past dealings with the local area could show what kind of impact they can have in the future. Operations could run smoother if relationship has already been established. This could further show if they have access to dignitaries and if they could influence them which could give them plausible deniability if the government changes in their favor.  Do they have/what are their TTP’s? Predictive: TTP’s are an indication that the organization is structured and has some sort of rules or regulations. Analysts have the capability to track TTP’s once identified to keep track if they change or are trending. This could assist in establishing counter-intelligence operations, counterinsurgency and patterns of life. Knowing these TTP’s could assist in illustrating future operations, as well as why they are conducing them. c. Local effects (indifferent, sympathetic, oblivious, disdain, etc) (PIR 3)  Is the local populace suppo