• American Military University

• INTL 498

(A) Problem 1) To what extent is Iran influencing policymaking by the Lebanese government and political leadership? (B) Priority Intelligence Requirements/Essential Elements of Information a. PIR 1: What is the current connection between Lebanon and Iran?  EEI 1: What agreements currently exist between Lebanon and Iran?  EEI 2: Why is Iran influencing Lebanon, is there something that Iran will get out of it?  EEI 3: What is the leader of Iran like, has he ever attempted to influence other nations like this? b. PIR 2: Is Lebanon more susceptible to influenced due to the current crisis?  EEI 1: Because the government has decided to step back from violent acts like protests, does this make Lebanon more open to influence?  EEI 2: Are other nations helping Lebanon?  EEI 3: Has Lebanon ever been involved with Iran like this in the past? c. PIR 3: What changes or actions have occurred to point towards Iran influencing Lebanon?  EEI 1: In recent years, what laws, agreements, and policies has been established in Lebanon?  EEI 2: Do these laws, agreements, and policies relate to any established by Iran?  EEI 3: If Iran has similar governing methods, will this be solid enough evidence of Iran’s influence on Lebanon, or could if just be coincidence? (C) Preferred Analysis Method with Explanation PIR 1-EEI 1: The best way for analysts to discover if there are existing agreements between the two countries could be through Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) resources. To ensure the accuracy of collected information, Quality of Information Check would be the best used method. If it is revealed that there are current agreements between the nations, this could mean Iran may have influence over Lebanon. PIR 1-EEI 2: Once again, intelligence analysts can collect information about Iran using OSINT. Knowing information such as what Iran is trying to achieve will be useful. Using the Quality of Information Check can be used here to fact check all collected information on what Iran is trying to do. To put together the benefits Iran has by influencing Lebanon as its ally, Outside-In Thinking can be used. Because it is unknown if Iran has influence on Lebanon or not, the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis method could also be used to give reasons why Iran would not benefit from the move. PIR 1-EEI 3: Open-source intelligence about the leader of Iran can be collected by analysts. Information regarding previous decisions regarding Iran to search for a possible pattern. Always use the Quality of Information Check to confirm the intelligence accuracy. Predictive Analysis can be used by an analyst to look at past dealings of the leader and predict if it will happen again with Lebanon or not. PIR 2-EEI 1: Because the assumption is made that Lebanon is more open to influences due to the current crisis, Key Assumptions Check would be the best area to start. To confirm that