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Q4. The Ventron Engineering Company has just been awarded a £2 million development
contract by the British Army Aviation Systems Command to develop a blade spar for its Heavy
Lift Helicopter program. The blade spar is a metal tube that runs the length of and provides
strength to the helicopter blade. Due to the unusual length and size of the Heavy Lift Helicopter
blade, Ventron is unable to produce a single-piece blade spar of the required dimensions using
existing extrusion equipment and material. The engineering department has prepared two
alternatives for developing the blade spar: (1) sectioning or (2) an improved extrusion process.
Ventron must decide which process to use. (Backing out of the contract at any point is not an
option.) The risk report has been prepared by the engineering department. The information from
this report is explained next.
The sectioning option involves joining several shorter lengths of extruded metal into a blade spar
of sufficient length. This work will require extensive testing and rework over a 12-month period
at a total cost of £1.8 million. Although this process will definitely produce an adequate blade
spar, it merely represents an extension of existing technology.
To improve the extrusion process, on the other hand, it will be necessary to perform two steps:
(1) improve the material used, at a cost of £300,000, and (2) modify the extrusion press, at a cost
of £960,000. The first step will require six months of work, and if this first step is successful, the
second step will require another six months of work. If both steps are successful, the blade spar
will be available at that time, that is, a year from now. The engineers estimate that the
probabilities of succeeding in steps 1 and 2 are 0.9 and 0.75, respectively. However, if either step
is unsuccessful (which will be known only in six months for step 1 and in a year for step 2),
Ventron will have no alternative but to switch to the sectioning process and incur the sectioning
cost on top of any costs already incurred.
Development of the blade spar must be completed within 18 months to avoid holding up the rest
of the contract. If necessary, the sectioning work can be done on an accelerated basis in a sixmonth period, but the cost of sectioning will then increase from £1.8 million to £2.4 million. The
director of engineering, Dr. Smith, wants to try developing the improved extrusion process. He
reasons that this is not only cheaper (if successful) for the current project, but its expected side
benefits for future projects could be sizable. Although these side benefits are difficult to gauge,
Dr. Smith's best guess is an additional £2 million. (These side benefits are obtained only if both
steps of the modified extrusion process are completed successfully.)